The study, authored by Boston University economist Dr. Joshua Goodman and Harvard University researcher Joseph Winkelmann, challenges popular narratives that declining college enrollment represents a crisis of confidence in higher education.
"Declining college enrollments in the United States over the past 15 years have sparked widespread concern about the health of the postsecondary education sector," the researchers write. However, their analysis reveals that "the large declines in college enrollment sparking recent higher education discussions is driven not by the four-year sector but instead by the two-year community college sector."
Four-year institutions have actually maintained stable or growing enrollments. Both public and private not-for-profit four-year colleges enrolled more students in fall 2023 than in fall 2010, according to the paper.
In contrast, community college enrollment dropped 37 percent from its 2010 peak of 7.3 million students to 4.6 million in fall 2023, using official statistics. However, the researchers note that over one-third of this apparent decline stems from administrative reclassification rather than actual enrollment changes.
"Over one-third of the apparent decline in community college enrollments is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as four-year institutions," the authors explain. Many community colleges began offering limited bachelor's degree programs during this period, prompting the federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) to reclassify them despite most students still pursuing associate degrees.
The study's central finding demonstrates a strong relationship between local unemployment rates and community college enrollment. Using county-level data from 1990 to 2007, the researchers found that "a one percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate increases first-time community college enrollment by approximately 2 percent."
