A new survey reveals a troubling mismatch between graduate students' financial expectations and the realities of shrinking federal aid, threatening enrollment at US graduate programs already strained by declining international student numbers and tightening budgets.
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Cost has become the dominant factor in graduate school decisions, with 60% of survey respondents ranking it as most important—surpassing program accreditation, last year's top concern. The shift signals a fundamental change in how adult learners are evaluating their educational options in an uncertain economic environment.
Price sensitivity has intensified dramatically, with nearly 40% of respondents considering annual costs above $10,000 "too expensive," while almost two-thirds are unwilling to spend more than $20,000 yearly. The findings suggest many programs may be pricing themselves out of reach for large segments of potential students.
The financial expectations clash with both rising costs and reduced aid availability. Average annual graduate school costs now exceed $20,000, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July will eliminate the Grad PLUS loan program in July 2026 and impose stricter borrowing limits on Federal Direct loans for new borrowers.
The policy changes represent the most significant restructuring of graduate student financial aid in decades. Under the new rules, graduate students will face borrowing caps of $100,000 for most programs and $200,000 for professional degrees such as medicine and law.
"The hopes and expectations of today's adult learners are colliding with a financial aid system in a period of significant transition," said Val Fox, senior director at EAB's Adult Learner Recruitment division. "Federal aid sources are shrinking, and students with low credit scores may not qualify for private loans. This mismatch will make it even harder to sustain enrollment at a time when institutions need domestic adult learners more than ever."
The survey found that scholarships have become the single most cited source of financial support at 52%, followed closely by financial aid, loans, and grants at 45%. Personal and household income, traditionally a major funding source, has declined in importance, with reliance on personal income dropping from 58% in 2024 to just 23% this year.
The pressure on graduate programs has intensified following recent policy changes affecting international enrollment. New international enrollment in US graduate schools dropped 17% this academic year, according to the Institute of International Education, marking the first significant decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The drop represents a potential revenue loss of up to $7 billion for US institutions in a single year, according to NAFSA's Fall 2025 International Outlook. Many graduate programs have historically relied on international students, who often pay full tuition, to subsidize operations and support domestic students.
The EAB survey found that international students face multiple concerns beyond cost. Among non-US citizens surveyed, 65% cited tuition costs as a concern, but 56% also worried about visa access, 47% about cost of living, and 42% about travel restrictions. Nearly a quarter expressed concerns about the current presidential administration, while 28% worried about their visa being revoked while enrolled.
"International and domestic students alike cite cost as the most important factor in their enrollment decisions," the survey report notes. "However, beyond price and cost of living, prospective international students must also contend with concerns about visas, travel restrictions, and personal safety."
The EAB survey, conducted from August 20 to September 8, also documented changing student search behaviors that have significant implications for how institutions recruit. Respondents are completing their college search more quickly, with 44% making enrollment decisions within six months, up from 41% last year. Meanwhile, the proportion spending more than a year researching programs dropped from 40% to 37%.
Students applied to an average of just 4.19 schools, far fewer than undergraduate applicants, who typically apply to 8.50 institutions. Master's degree seekers applied to an average of 3.51 programs, while doctoral candidates applied to 6.78. The compressed search timeline and limited application lists mean programs have fewer opportunities to engage prospective students.
The survey also documented rising privacy expectations, with 58% of respondents preferring to research programs independently before sharing personal information with schools, up from 50% in 2024. Another 28% said they don't want to share any information until they're ready to apply, an increase from 25% last year.
"For busy adults, giving up details often triggers outreach before they are ready to talk, especially at a time when AI usage is growing and prospective students have information at their fingertips," the report states. "For most, the early journey is stealth, and programs must be creative to adapt to this reality."
The survey found 94% of prospective students visit program websites during their search, with 86% saying a school's website helps them decide whether to enroll. Two-thirds use university websites and search engines as their primary information sources, far outpacing social media at 27% and communications from schools at 40%.
Cost information, programs offered, and admissions requirements topped the list of information students sought online. The findings underscore the critical importance of clear, accessible pricing information on program websites—particularly as students become more price-sensitive and less willing to engage directly with admissions offices early in their search.
The survey also documented a dramatic surge in AI usage for program research, jumping from just 3.5% of respondents in 2024 to 18.6% this year—a fivefold increase. Men, adults aged 28-35, international students, and graduate degree seekers were most likely to use AI tools. An additional 23% of respondents reported reading AI-generated summaries at the top of search engine results pages.
"AI search results won't replace your program pages, but they will play an increasingly crucial role in search," the report advises. "Schools that publish unambiguous, consistent facts across pages and documents are far more likely to have their story represented accurately in AI-generated content."
The survey also revealed a disconnect between student preferences and available program formats. While 41% of respondents preferred hybrid learning models combining online and in-person instruction, only 21% enrolled in such programs, with many citing limited availability. The majority of students—44%—ended up enrolling in fully in-person programs despite expressing different preferences.
An analysis of open-ended survey responses found 35% of students who enrolled in a different format than they preferred did so because it was the only option available. The mismatch suggests some prospective students may be forgoing enrollment altogether when their preferred format isn't offered.
Among online learners, 74% expressed a preference for asynchronous or mixed-format courses, while just 18% wanted fully synchronous programs. However, 54% of enrolled online students are taking synchronous courses, again suggesting a gap between supply and demand.
Fox said institutions must adapt their recruitment strategies to survive the new landscape. "Success for US graduate schools in 2026 will depend heavily on their ability to adapt recruiting strategies to accommodate policy shifts and evolving student priorities," she said. "Schools need to communicate costs clearly, especially on digital channels, and align their value propositions to individual student interests through hyper-personalized marketing."
The survey report recommends institutions focus on demonstrating return on investment by highlighting job placement rates, career services, and alumni success stories alongside clear pricing information. Programs should also consider segmenting and personalizing outreach to match individual student concerns and interests, rather than relying on generic messaging.
"Since graduate and adult learners apply to so few programs relative to first-time, full-time undergraduate students, it's even more important to meet them with the right message at the right moment in their journey," the report states. "What moves the needle for one student might lose the interest of another."
The convergence of policy changes, rising costs, and evolving student expectations represents what enrollment managers describe as a potential inflection point for graduate education. Programs that fail to adapt their pricing, aid strategies, and marketing approaches may struggle to maintain enrollment levels in the years ahead.
