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The near-flat projection marks a significant shift from recent years and signals continued challenges for upcoming graduates entering a tight labor market, according to NACE's Job Outlook 2026 survey.
"Our findings are consistent with what we are seeing with general employment indicators at large," said Shawn VanDerziel, NACE president and chief executive officer. "We found that employers are less positive about the overall job market for upcoming graduates this year than they have been in the last several years."
Employers now characterize the job market for new graduates as "fair" rather than "good," the first time they've given that rating since projections for the Class of 2021, when hiring was also essentially flat, according to the report.
The survey found 60% of employers plan to maintain current hiring levels, while 25% expect to increase hiring and 15% anticipate decreases.
Despite the tepid outlook, employers cited long-term workforce planning as their primary motivation for continued entry-level hiring. Among companies increasing hires, 72.7% pointed to succession planning and talent pipeline development, while 68.2% cited company growth. Another 31.8% cited anticipated retirements as a factor, while 29.5% pointed to increased demand for products and services.
"This is a strong indication they are not giving up on professional entry-level hiring or recent college graduates, and they are focused on the future of their organizations," VanDerziel said.
The report also revealed shifts in workplace arrangements and compensation practices. Fully remote positions for entry-level jobs have declined to 6% of positions, down from 8% in the previous survey cycle. Hybrid positions now account for 50% of entry-level roles, while fully in-person positions make up 44%.
Salary trends show divergent patterns between degree levels. While 40.3% of employers plan to increase salaries for bachelor's degree graduates, only 28.3% plan raises for master's degree recipients. The majority of employers—59.7% for bachelor's graduates and 71.7% for master's graduates—plan to maintain current salary levels. No employers reported plans to decrease salaries.
Nearly half of responding employers, 47.2%, plan to offer signing bonuses to all graduates they hire, while 52.8% will offer bonuses only to selected candidates.
The survey also found that 42.1% of employers screen candidates by grade point average, down from a peak of 73.3% in 2019. Among employers that do screen by GPA, academic major remains the most important factor at 95.5%, followed by industry internship experience at 86.6% and general industry experience at 82.1%.
For employers not using GPA screening, academic major still tops the list at 93.7%, followed by industry experience at 81.1% and completion of an internship within the industry at 78.9%.
When choosing between equally qualified candidates, completion of an internship with the hiring organization carries the most weight, with an average influence rating of 4.5 on a five-point scale. Industry internship experience follows at 4.4, while academic major rates 4.3.
The report noted that U.S.-based internships remain the most valuable experiential learning opportunity on a student's resume, cited by 97% of employers. Co-op experiences ranked second at 76%, followed by on-campus student work at 43%.
NACE collected survey data from August 7 through September 22, 2025, receiving 183 responses from employers, including 170 NACE employer members representing 22.7% of eligible members, plus 13 nonmember companies. The organization plans to release a spring update in early April with final hiring projections for the Class of 2026.
The national association, established in 1956, connects more than 13,000 college career services professionals and 3,800 early career talent acquisition professionals across the United States.
