A new report from Excelencia in Education released this week reveals that while Latinos are projected to make up 91 percent of new U.S. workers by 2031 — one in five workers nationwide — only 31 percent of Latino adults currently hold an associate degree or higher, compared to 54 percent of White adults. And despite the current climate’s persistent devaluing of college, the report calls out the fact that nearly 75 percent of jobs in the coming decades will require a postsecondary credential.
As older workers retire out of healthcare, education, technology, and engineering — sectors already straining under labor shortages — the workers who replace them are disproportionately going to be Latino, based on demographic projections. However, the current attainment realities outlined in the report highlight a projected exacerbation of the current workforce shortage.
At two-year institutions, the report says, only 45 percent of Latino students earn a credential within three, compared to 55 percent of White students. At four-year institutions, the gap widens; 65 percent of Latino students graduate within six years, compared to 78 percent of White students. Despite a decade of steady, genuine progress — Latino attainment rose eight points at the associate level, six at the bachelor's, gains on par with every other group — the gap remains the same.
As the report notes, this is not an issue of student ability, but a reflection of the reality that more Latino students are first-generation college goers, come from low-income families, and are likely working while enrolled than their White counterparts. The authors recommend a sustained federal investment in the institutions serving the most Latino students, low-debt aid structures that count childcare, food, and transportation as part of the total cost of attendance so students can use financial aid to offset costs, and above all, intentional re-engagement of the students who have stopped out as implementable solutions.
But these recommendations land in a political and funding environment actively moving in the opposite direction. Over the past year, federal rule changes have narrowed what counts as an allowable use of federal funds for institutions serving underrepresented students, adding new risk-assessment criteria and termination authority that add additional barriers for scaling the targeted, sustained investment the authors recommend.
Excelencia awards the Seal of Excelencia each year to institutions that demonstrate alignment across three areas — data, practice, and leadership — in service of Latino students specifically. Fewer than 1 percent of colleges and universities nationwide hold the certification, yet those institutions enroll 15 percent of Latino students and graduate 17 percent of them, outperforming the national average. And it isn’t just Latino student outcomes that are better — Excelencia data shows that when institutions track retention and completion closely; leverages high-impact strategies, like guided pathways, advising, and transfer support; and commits to a multi-year financial commitment — they have higher retention and graduation rates for all undergraduates than the national average.
The report frames re-engagement and Seal-style investment as solvable now, with existing tools and a working model already in place.
