Data gathered prior to the impact of COVID-19 shows there was a decrease in postsecondary enrollment in spring 2020 but the pace of decline slowed compared to the previous four years, says a report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Overall postsecondary enrollment in spring 2020 decreased 0.5%, or by 83,803 students, from spring 2019, according to the report, Current Term Enrollment Estimates Spring 2020. National spring enrollment decreased 1.7%, in 2019, 1.3% in 2018, 1.5% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2016. The numbers include online students.
“This is the smallest rate of decrease that we’ve seen in years,” said Dr. Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “It suggests that higher education, just before the pandemic, was nearing a new equilibrium after years of enrollment decline.”
Still, Shapiro said the report should be viewed as a pre-shutdown baseline that does not reflect any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on enrollments.
The Current Term Enrollment Estimates Report series is typically published every December and May. This year, though, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center will issue a special enrollment report in late June that will reflect the impact of COVID-19. Shapiro said it will show students who may have dropped out mid-semester, but also those who may have re-enrolled or changed their enrollment intensity (full-time vs part-time) in response to the disruptions on campuses and in the economy.
“Having a baseline of enrolled students is critical to any future analysis of the impact of the pandemic,” said Shapiro. “This will enable us to identify changes in student enrollment behaviors over the coming months and show how they may differ for specific student populations and specific types of institutions.”
The June report will likely assist colleges and universities in helping plan for fall 2020.
