In the wake of the COVID pandemic, high school GPAs (HSGPA) are less likely to be clear indicators of first-year, postsecondary success. A more holistic assessment of students, including the use of the ACT test score alongside HSGPA, acts as a better predictor.
That’s according to the latest report from the ACT, which analyzed high school GPAs, ACT test scores, and first-year grades in students from 2017 to 2021. Their findings indicate that grade inflation since the pandemic has changed the predictability of a HSGPA to translate into student’s ability to succeed and thrive in their freshman year. This could negatively impact a student’s self-perception of belongingness and readiness for higher education.
“We were curious about the impact on GPAs post-pandemic, with students moving online, their grades changing, as well as a learning loss potential,” said Catherine Hofmann, senior vice president of government and public affairs at ACT. “Following the onset of COVID, the predictive power of the HSGPA has decreased.”
According to the report, using HSGPA alone as a prediction for first-year GPAs fell dramatically in 2020 and 2021. Before the pandemic, in 2017, a student who had a 2.5 HSGPA would be predicted to earn a 2.0 GPA in college. In 2020 and 2021, a 2.5 HSGPA predicted for a 1.5 first-year GPA. However, using a combination of a student’s HSGPA and their ACT composite scores narrows the predictive gap considerably.
Dr. Edgar Sanchez, lead research scientist at ACT and author of the report.
Hofmann said she suggests using HSGPAs for college assessment as long as it is in coordination with some other standardized test method to assess content mastery.
“We believe in multiple measurements. We never say that the ACT should be the sole measure used, but we do think it’s important that there’s an understanding that there’s been an inflation in GPA, and it could mean that students aren’t as prepared,” said Hofmann.
