The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A White man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.
“I did all I could,” the man told Jackson ruefully, “but I just couldn’t bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.”
L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder’s vantage point as the nation’s first elected Black governor.
Now it’s a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone’s talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn’t changed since 1984: Do White people lie to pollsters or even to themselves about their willingness to vote for Black candidates?
In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect whether in the privacy of the voting booth, White people will actually pull the lever for the first Black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.
Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year’s polls.
In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City’s first Black mayor. And the phenomenon was first noted in 1982, when Tom Bradley endured a stunning defeat in the California governor’s race after exit polls indicated he was the winner.
