The looming crisis stems from a massive wave of retirements that will far outstrip the pipeline of new workers entering the job market. An estimated 18.4 million experienced workers with postsecondary education are expected to retire by 2032, while only 13.8 million younger workers with equivalent qualifications will enter the workforce during that period.
The shortage will hit 171 of 561 occupations analyzed by Georgetown researchers, with management positions facing the largest gap at 2.9 million workers. The category spans roles from CEOs to construction managers across all industries.
Healthcare and education sectors face particularly acute shortages that could undermine critical public services. The study projects shortfalls of 611,000 teachers and 404,000 nurses of all levels through 2032.
"Both teacher and nursing shortages are pressing concerns with far-reaching implications for the nation's education and healthcare systems," said Dr. Nicole Smith, the study's lead author and chief economist at Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce. "Addressing these shortages must be a priority."
The nursing shortage is compounded by a related lack of teaching faculty in nursing programs, partly due to faculty salaries that trail what nurses can earn in clinical practice. Teacher shortages have been worsened by pandemic-related burnout and declining college enrollment in education programs.
Engineering faces a projected shortage of 210,000 workers, threatening the nation's technological competitiveness. Construction will need 200,000 additional workers, while transportation sectors will lack 402,000 drivers and related workers.
"Engineers drive innovation, technological advancements, and infrastructure development, so the engineering shortage hinders the nation's ability to maintain economic growth and global competitiveness," Smith said.
The skills gap disproportionately affects occupations requiring specialized training or degrees. While some shortages occur in roles not requiring bachelor's degrees, such as truck driving and construction work, inflexible schedules and working conditions may deter younger workers from these fields.
Georgetown researchers identified several potential solutions, including increasing workforce participation rates. Returning to the labor force participation rate of 67.3% achieved in 2000 could add 12 million workers—more than double the projected shortage. However, many of these potential workers would need additional education and training, as 52% currently lack postsecondary credentials.
Jeff Strohl, the study's co-author and director of Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce, said that there is an opportunity for underrepresented groups to access better-paying careers.
"Skills shortages present an opportunity for millions of workers, particularly those from low-income households and marginalized racial/ethnic groups, to gain better access to economic opportunity," Strohl said.
Other recommended strategies include expanding skills-based hiring practices, investing in worker retraining programs, leveraging technology to boost productivity, and expanding visa programs for immigrants with in-demand skills.
The study, titled "Falling Behind: How Skills Shortages Threaten Future Jobs," suggests that without significant investment in education and training, critical industries will struggle to maintain operations and economic growth through the next decade.
