The looming crisis stems from a massive wave of retirements that will far outstrip the pipeline of new workers entering the job market. An estimated 18.4 million experienced workers with postsecondary education are expected to retire by 2032, while only 13.8 million younger workers with equivalent qualifications will enter the workforce during that period.
The shortage will hit 171 of 561 occupations analyzed by Georgetown researchers, with management positions facing the largest gap at 2.9 million workers. The category spans roles from CEOs to construction managers across all industries.
Healthcare and education sectors face particularly acute shortages that could undermine critical public services. The study projects shortfalls of 611,000 teachers and 404,000 nurses of all levels through 2032.
"Both teacher and nursing shortages are pressing concerns with far-reaching implications for the nation's education and healthcare systems," said Dr. Nicole Smith, the study's lead author and chief economist at Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce. "Addressing these shortages must be a priority."
The nursing shortage is compounded by a related lack of teaching faculty in nursing programs, partly due to faculty salaries that trail what nurses can earn in clinical practice. Teacher shortages have been worsened by pandemic-related burnout and declining college enrollment in education programs.
Engineering faces a projected shortage of 210,000 workers, threatening the nation's technological competitiveness. Construction will need 200,000 additional workers, while transportation sectors will lack 402,000 drivers and related workers.
